That’s right, I am back for another addition of publicly releasing my derby bets on my sister’s unbelievably awesome fashion blog. It’s the time of year when men deem it necessary to wear things they typically wouldn’t while the women put on massive hats that will be worn once and then put in an equally massive box to take up room in your basement. Meanwhile, true giants of thoroughbred handicapping, like me, pour over tons of data, watch replays of derby preps and beg their wives (sometimes their mothers) for a couple hundred bucks because this is the year we are going to hit the superfecta. Excited? Darn right you are. So here we go.

• Audible – Todd Pletcher – JJ Castellano

  Holy Bull and Florida Derby winner keeps doing everything right. His win in the Florida Derby proved he could rate back a little further off the lead and showed a strong, sustained move to overtake a ridiculously fast pace. I think that strategy will work well in the Derby with plenty of speed drawn towards his inside. I expect his 8-1 morning line to stay about the same with a chance of lowering slightly, but he has been my top horse all season, so I can’t bail now.

• Good Magic – Chad Brown – Jose Ortiz

  Champion Juvenile might be sitting on his best race yet. Brown has meticulously plotted his course to the Derby following an impressive maiden win in last year’s Breeders Cup Juvenile (defeating a number of those entered in the Derby.) Say what you will about a dull run in the Fountain of Youth, that race was clearly a building block, and he still managed to finish third. Then he comes back to win impressively in the Blue Grass Stakes while facing a large, bunched up field of 14 horses. Derby morning-line favorite Justify has not faced more than 7 foes in a single race, worth noting I think. All in all, Good Magic was the champ, has been expertly pointed to the Derby, and sits at 12-1 on the morning-line, that is enough for me.

• Bolt d’Oro – Mick Ruis – Victor Espinoza

  Had trainer Mick Ruis avoided the lightly raced, ultra-talented Justify in his last prep, he would likely be sitting as the second favorite on the morning line. Instead, he raced against the Derby favorite in the Santa Anita Derby and failed to make much of a move. However, Justify had an easy, pressure free lead and the Brisnet numbers for Bolt d’Oro coming home in that race are strong. This is a hunch play, I admit it. I liked this horse last year and he has failed to live up to all the early hype. At 8-1 on the morning-line though, I think he is a huge overlay with tons of talent and heart. His ability to hit the gas will be important in sitting mid-pack ready to pounce on what will likely be a quick pace, hopefully consisting of both Mendelssohn and Justify.

• Long Shot Plays:

  1. Enticed – Kiaran McLaughlin – Junior Alvarado
     1. Strong, steady numbers. Could have easily been placed 1^st in the Wood following what looked like a bump by eventual winner Vino Rosso.
  2. Solomini – Bob Baffert – Flavian Prat
     1. Struggled typed this one’s name here because of his many quirks and inconsistencies. However, he is bred for the distance and has a strong late kick, which may be the key in this race.

• Brad’s Bets:

  1. $20 WPS on Audible
  2. $10 exacta box with the top three choices
  3. $1 Tri Wheel with the top three horses over the Long Shot Plays, Magnum Moon and Hofburg in the second and third positions

Brad McLean with Ford & Jack McLean