The Second Annual LexWhatWear Derby Post

WITH HORSE ENTHUSIAST, BRAD MCLEAN

Brad & Kate McLean

---

Well I have to admit I have been looking forward to doing this again all year. Last year we didn’t fare so well. That’s going to change this year…hopefully. While picking the Derby winner is no easy task in any given year, I think this year is certainly one of the toughest to handicap. With so many defections and early contenders now off the Triple Crown trail, we are left with a good group of very evenly matched horses, in my opinion. Below is how I have it handicapped. Good luck and enjoy the most exciting 2 minutes in sports, no matter where you are!

1)   Intense Holiday – Todd Pletcher (Trainer) – John Velasquez (Jockey)

1. Although he has had a problem with “cross-firing,” or getting his back legs out of sync with his front, this horse has still performed at the highest level. He won the Risen Star down at Fair Grounds and came back to finish 2^nd in the Louisiana Derby to a horse who led gate to wire on a speed favoring track. The best looking horse I was able to see on the backside when visiting this week and you have to think this horse, if he can get it all figured out, will be coming from mid-pack and gaining ground at the end. Not to mention, he has a hall of fame jock up.

2)   California Chrome – Art Sherman (Trainer)- Victor Espinoza (Jockey)

1. I originally had Hoppertunity in this spot, however, his scratch on Thursday morning forced me to include the heavy favorite. This horse has done nothing wrong during his three year old campaign. He is morning line 5/2 and if you can get that going to the gate, it is well worth the bet. I do not like how he has looked on the track but you have to assume this horse is the real deal. Reluctantly putting him here over Tapiture and Samraat.

3)   Danza – Todd Pletcher (Trainer) – Joe Bravo (Jockey)

1. Some may question using two Pletcher horses in the Derby, where Pletcher has notoriously struggled (and burned yours truly last year). That said, I have to jump on the Danza bandwagon after watching him work on Sunday. This is a beautiful bay colt that seems to have taken wonderfully to the Churchill Downs surface. While his victory in the Arkansas Derby at 40-1 may have seemed like a fluke, I would suggest this colt by Street Boss showed what he was really made of. He won for fun is his debut then suffered a minor injury after running third, beaten a half length at Saratoga second time out. Upon returning to the races after seven months off, he finished third in an allowance race, which he most certainly needed coming off the bench. In the Arkansas Derby Danza made a huge move coming down the stretch and looked easy doing it. No fluke here, but watch the odds drop on Derby day thanks to the buzz on the backside.

4)   Longshot Picks (in no particular order)

1. Ride on Curlin – Billy Gowan (Trainer) – Calvin Borel (Jockey)

i.     This horse has competed admirably with all the major players in this Derby. He will relish the longer distance and has proven he likes wet tracks, which we have to be cognizant of every Derby. Plus, how can you root against a small time trainer and Calvin Borel?

1. Candy Boy – John Sadler (Trainer) – Gary Stevens (Jockey)

i.     Another one added late to my list after the defection of Hoppertunity. This horse is visually impressive and should be coming late. Got to love the experience of Gary Stevens here and you can guarantee he will be well placed coming down the lane. Anything over 12-1 on this horse is worth a play.

1. Medal Count – Dale Romans (Trainer) – Robby Albarado (Jockey)

i.     Forget about his past performances and recall who finished second last year, Golden Soul. Golden Soul liked the added distance of 1 ¼ mile and ran big coming down the stretch. I saw Medal Count on the track yesterday and he looks great. Plus, his trainer is whispering to a number of people about how live this horse is. Got to use him underneath and watch him come at the end!

5)   Brad’s Bets

1. $1 trifecta box 4-5-16-18-19

2. .50 super box 4-5-14-16-18-19

3. .10 super box 4-5-8-14-16-19

4. $10 WPS 16