Today marks our 5th anniversary of Brad’s Bets, and although we are living in the most bizarre of times, we are ready to bring you Brad’s Bets for the 146th Kentucky Derby. For anyone who is new around here, Brad is my older brother who simply loves the sport of horse racing. We grew up in the horse industry with our Dad, who runs The Pressbox and the Louisville Thoroughbred Society. This is the ONE DAY of the year that Brad’o takes over Lex What Wear, so I usually let him bask in the glory for as long as possible.
TAKE IT AWAY BRAD:
An unconventional version of my annual post in an unconventional year (to say the least). As I type this, my wife is attempting to get our 6 year old to get on his 4th Zoom of the day while he sits in a tree he climbed in our front yard shirtless, shoeless and with his hair in a mohawk. While we all try and figure out virtual learning and what the hell day it is and where in the hell that bottle of wine you opened at 11:00 am went, figuring out the derby this year should be the easiest thing on your plate. Tiz The Law is the prohibitive favorite and could not be more deserving. With Art Collector defecting out of the race, the coast seems relatively clear for Tiz The Law to have his way with the 17-horse derby field.
But I am no fan of just betting heavy favorites, especially in big races. So along with Tiz The Law, I am going to use the 16 – Honor A.P. This colt has done little wrong in 5 starts and its tough to count out big money Mike Smith who takes the mount. I also am going to use the 10 – Thousand Words for trainer Bob Baffert. This guy has been inconsistent but if he fires and is able to hang with Tiz The Law on or near the early lead, he might be able to spring the upset. I hope the morning line odds shoot up come post time because anything less than 15-1 is a little short for me. Finally, my big long shot play and a horse that I will certainly use in the exotics is the 2 – Max Player. You may notice that the horse is coming into this race for the first time under new trainer Steve Asmussen. The owners moved the horse to the Asmussen barn, and away from NY based trainer Linda Rice, to prep for the Derby. Personally, I think that kind of a move leading up to this kind of race is totally uncool. However, I liked this horse in the Travers and I think that if somehow the pace goes faster than everyone thinks, he could run late and get a piece.
- So for betting purposes, I am going to take a shot at both the pick 6 and the pick 5. I will likely single Tiz The Law in both of those bets.
- For the Derby itself, if you get anything above even money on Tiz The Law hammer down on a win bet.
- I am also going to do an exacta with Tiz the Law over the 2-10-16 and the 2-10-16 over Tiz The Law. For a $50 exacta wheel those bets will cost you $150 apiece
Good luck and stay safe!